Monday, February 23, 2009

How to Build a Stimulus

I don't want to talk about the stimulus package passed by Congress and signed into law by our President. What I want to talk about is how I would create a stimulus package if given the chance.

I have an analytic mind. I am results oriented. I have degrees in math and engineering - it's just how my brain works. I understand that most politicians (on both sides of the aisle) are idea people, not numbers people. And quite honestly, I think we need more people who have BOTH skill sets.

If I were to design a package to stimulate the economy here is how I would go about it:

1. Identify & clearly state the goal (i.e. "stimulate the economy in the short and long term")

2. Define the mechanism to achieve the goal (e.g. XX jobs created, $XX salary increases, etc)

3. Determine my budget for the plan.

4. Brainstorm ideas that would achieve each mechanism (e.g. repairing every bridge on every highway might create short-term jobs)

5. Determine actual impacts of the brainstormed ideas (e.g. If we repair every bridge we will need X workers for X number of years. They will need the following list of skills: A, B, C.).
If an idea doesn't actually achieve one of the mechanisms of the goal it gets nixed. That doesn't mean it's not a good idea, just means it doesn't belong here because it doesn't get me closer to my goal.

6. Determine the cost to implement each brainstormed idea that hasn't been eliminated.

***At this point each idea has impact number (X number of jobs) and a cost number ($x,000) ***

7. Assign each idea a value that is a function of cost and impact.

8. Select the final list of ideas based on those with the highest value. Stop putting things on the list when I have reached my allotted budget.

Is this really that hard?
I feel like the current method has been turned on its head. Our elected officials throw out ideas. Someone says "ooh, that's a good one, let's do that" and give little to no consideration to how much it will cost or whether it will actually stimulate the economy.

Now, about the real stimulus bill...
The plan is projected to create 35 million jobs. At a total cost of around $800,000,000,000 that is a cost of almost $23,000 per job. Is that a good investment? I'm not sure yet. But I have to believe that we could have had that same result with a lower price tag.
I have a few other issues with this as well...
Who determined that job projection?
What methodology was used to come up with those numbers? What calculation did they use to determine how many jobs each program on the bill will create?
It frustrates me that if I were to have to come up with a proposal like this to spend my employer's money I would need real, concrete data and verifiable outcomes. There seems to be no such requirement or even an idea that there should be for our elected officials.

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